In this podcast, Connected Futures executive editor Kevin Delaney speaks with Gerd Leonhard who ranks as one of the top 10 futurist keynote speakers, worldwide, with over 1500 engagements in 50+ countries during the past 2 decades and a combined audience of over 2.5 Million people. Gerd has written 5 books including the best-selling Technology vs. Humanity: The coming clash between man and machine (2016), now available in 12 languages.
“I don’t think that the end of routine means the end of jobs,” says Gerd “I think it just means the end of routine.” That means fundamentally human qualities like design, storytelling, creativity, and innovation will loom in importance. But business leaders still need to prepare for some major upheavals.
“We need to focus on the things that we as humans can do. And not machines. So that’s what we have to teach our kids. And that’s what we need to do at work. The routine needs to be outsourced to machines because they can eventually do it. And then we have to focus on what makes us human. The human skills.” Gerd Leonhard.
Listen here and read the full transcript below.
Kevin Delaney [00:00:49] That’s the futurist Gerd Leonhard heart speaking of a world in which super smart talking machines take over many rote tasks. But far from making us obsolete, he argues they’ll free us to concentrate on the more creative jobs. It’s a world in which purely human qualities like empathy, inventiveness, design and storytelling are more important than ever. And will differentiate us in the workplace like never before. That future of work is coming fast and it won’t be without some serious challenges. Workers, business leaders, and society as a whole will need to be ready.
Kevin Delaney [00:01:25] Hi this is Kevin Delaney Connected Futures executive editor and senior writer. I spoke with Gerd who is the author of Technology versus Humanity the coming clash between man and machine, about his vision for how technology is changing the future of work. That is the near future of work. I hope you enjoy the podcast.
Kevin Delaney [00:01:46] Thanks so much Gerd for taking the time to chat with us. Great to have you today as A.I. robotics and other technologies continue to advance they could eliminate many jobs. But there’s a counter-argument that machines will also free humans from rote tasks and open up new creative opportunities. Where do you stand on the replace humans versus augment them debate? And what would augmentation look like from your perspective?
Gerd Leonhard [00:02:15] I think this is a good question. I think the bottom line is that computers, machines and software and A.I. will replace any job that is about routine and robotic jobs entails monkey work so to speak.
Kevin Delaney [00:02:29] Sure.
Gerd Leonhard [00:02:29] And all of us are doing some of that in different ways. But any job that can be learned by just watching and looking at the facts and stuff is on that list and I think that’s quite clear, that’s going gonna be a huge amount like call centres Hamburger fast food, driving a truck, flying a plane. That’s all true, at the same time I don’t think that the end of routine means the end of jobs. I think it just means the end of routine. So in other words, we can let go of these routines and move up the food chain to create more value. And any smart company I think in the future would not just fire everyone when they can replace them with machines but move them to more value-adding jobs, and we can already see that in place for example with Amazon who’s the master of automation of course in the factories and so on in the warehouses. But the hiring like a hundred fifty thousand people now this year. So. So there are new jobs. It’s just no longer the routine jobs and the tough part will be not so much the new jobs but how to retrain and reskill the workers that are going to lose their job for sure in the next 10, 15, 20 years. So it’s kind of a mixed bag but it depends how we look at it. You know if we look at it on a larger frame it’s quite clear. Most jobs in 10 years haven’t even been invented yet. We don’t know what they are. We just know that technology has always created new jobs and destroyed all jobs. Let’s hope that our politicians and our leaders are wise enough to put some real money into creating new jobs as well.
Kevin Delaney [00:04:06] It’s really a matter of not just creating the new jobs but making sure that people are skilled to take them on isn’t it?
Gerd Leonhard [00:04:15] That’s true. But you know, of course, I think there’s a larger story here is that if our only goal is to make everything more efficient and to increase productivity while reducing the number of employees and reduce the amount of wages which is sort of American you know ‘extreme capitalism’. If we do that and that’s the goal and that’s supported by politicians and society then it, then it can be done right, then we’re in trouble. If the goal is to spread the power of technology and the benefits across society and create new jobs and new positions and reinvest, then we can also do that. So this is a question of you know technology is sort of as James Barrett says it’s a ‘dual use’ thing right. We can use it for very good things and very bad things. And this is really something that we decide it’s not something that’s inherent to technology. So to use AI to fire everyone and have the machine do the work that will be possible for the most part, if we use it to create new values and new jobs new possibilities that would also be possible. That’s really up to us.
Kevin Delaney [00:05:21] Do you think leaders today whether in politics business or technology are doing enough to prepare for some of these upheavals to avoid what I know you’ve called the potential for Digital Darwinism.
Gerd Leonhard [00:05:33] I think by and large of course politicians and public leaders, depending of course where we’re looking, but we’re not really facing this issue enough. I mean it’s really the obsession with efficiency. People look at technology and say Wow now we can instead of having people do this we can this API or robotic process automation or whatever. Right. And that is a very short term view because you know in five or 10 years every single company will have that technology. And so you end up being a commodity. The only thing that makes you a real company that has values and purpose and meaning, is the people that work in it. So to shortcut all of that and automate to the tune of 90 per cent. If you could do that you would be very efficient but nobody would care for you. So I think in the end you know business is human and we have to put that money back into that as well. So it’s sort of a hybrid way of looking at efficiency plus creating new values in my view that our leaders have to look at.
Kevin Delaney [00:06:32] Digital transformation has to go hand-in-hand with culture change and leaders who don’t see that are setting themselves up for failure aren’t they.
Gerd Leonhard [00:06:41] Yeah I think that we have this very technology driven view of society because let’s be fair so far technology has in many instances not really worked. You know we don’t have 100 per cent language translation. The Internet of Things is kind of limping along but getting better. AI certainly is most of the time it’s just fancy software but it’s not really thinking machines. And we’re still at the point where we are saying like well how will it work, and how much does it cost? In 10 years the question of how will it work, and if it works you know will be replaced by the question of why we are doing this, and who is going to benefit, and who will control it.
Kevin Delaney [00:07:22] Now in terms of AI, I know there’s no shortage of dystopian ideas about what could happen when these machines really become cognitive but in the shorter term A.I. will be combining with speech recognition and cameras and we’ll be interacting with machines on a much deeper level, probably in five years. And what are the implications in the workplace?
Gerd Leonhard [00:07:51] Most of what’s called an AI is really IA – intelligent assistance. It does the job. You know, but it’s not intelligent. Human intelligence consists of a dozen or so different kinds of intelligence you know social, emotional intelligence, intellectual experimental intelligence. So it’s not like like we can have a machine that does a lot of processing and then we say that it’s cognitive. That that will be a bit of a stretch here. You know, these machines are smart – are they intelligent like we are? That’s pretty far away. And I think eventually they’ll get there. The immediate challenge right now is as machines are becoming smart they will do things that we used to do. And that is a social and cultural challenge. It’s not existential. Well it can be if it’s too big obviously. Right. But it’s a social and cultural challenge. And then in 20, 30 years or so when machines reach the general point of intelligence AGI – that’s when it becomes existential. That’s when we have to say well can we control a machine that’s networked with three billion other machines and has an IQ of five hundred thousand. And how would we do that? And that is the larger story. Right now this is really about nuts and bolts you know how do we change the process what’s the new business model? Because you know it creates a certain commodification.
Kevin Delaney [00:09:18] Yeah and to avoid that are we doing enough to create the kind of workers who are going to be creative and collaborative – all of the things that will separate them from the rote tasks that the machines do? Is education, for example, doing enough on that front?
Gerd Leonhard [00:09:34] Yes it’s a good question. I know in my book Technology versus Humanity I talk about what is what I will call the Andro-rhythms you know the human rhythms the human things as opposed to algorithms and machines are obviously very good but algorithms and eventually they will have infinite capacity for algorithms. That’s not far away. Less than 10 years probably. But the capacity of Andro-rhythms you know this is illogical, mystery, serendipity, mistakes, lies, discovery, love, emotions you know you name it and it’s all the things that we can’t really define what it actually is, and we don’t know why we would instantly like a person or not like a person or why we have certain skills, right. And that is the things that we need in the future is to focus on the human-only skills you know mostly emotional intelligence really, and this is what right now is a number one desired capability in HR is emotional intelligence and we need to teach that to our kids that includes intelligence to create, to imagine, to tell a story, to live in a realm that is not algorithmic because that is human reality we don’t live in the realm of you know data streams, at least we don’t think of us in that way but so. So that’s what we have to teach our kids in school what it’s like and how do you create. How do you make up a story how do you envision things? That’s a uniquely human skill is to look into the future, that animals, for example, don’t have, and computers can, of course, anticipate and predict but then they cannot tell a story because they don’t exist. Not like we do.
Kevin Delaney [00:11:23] It makes me think of an interesting area that we’ve studied which is I.T. and many of the traditional operational tasks for I.T. many of which were were somewhat rote in keeping the lights on day to day we know which is important in any organization. But as network infrastructures become smarter and more automated some of those roles will change and I.T. is being tasked with different kinds of roles in the organization they’re much more forward in terms of helping the business drive innovation and be more connected to customers. So any thoughts on that particular area IT because I think it relates to some of what you were just saying where communication and emotional intelligence and creativity are playing a bigger role.
Gerd Leonhard [00:12:17] That’s absolutely true I think that we have to see that when in this phase of switch over. Right. Basically, the things that didn’t really used to work they’re now becoming doable for example we don’t have sensors everywhere. We have very few sensors and therefore the Internet of Things is kind of working but we don’t have enough. And we didn’t have the network the 5G or WiMAX or whatever you want to call it to connect the sensors and now very soon we have. And we didn’t have quantum computers and now very soon we’ll have those, right. So in the next five years all those hurdles are falling away. And technology will become infinitely capable essentially, and then all of the things that have made I.T. sort of hands-on, that humans were required for example the telecom network maintenance and those kind of things. Well, when you have drones and robots and A.I. it’s a self-running system to a very large degree. And then it comes down to a higher order of jobs for people to deal with the machines that do the jobs for example or to write the overall design of that job. So I think there is a huge shift that we’re undergoing from this idea of an Engineering Society like building things you know making things work and I.T. to this idea of the experience society. You know we actually create things to create experiences. And the emphasis is shifting from making stuff work to designing how it should work what the purpose of it is. Yes. And that’s going to change all of I.T. and you can see that already with all of the major providers of I.T. it’s going to be much more about the human design than about you know figuring out how it works because how it works will be something that just happens more or less.
Kevin Delaney [00:14:09] Another aspect in I.T. is that speed has become so important as a competitive advantage. And I.T. is really behind that enabling organizations to become faster and more agile, make decisions faster.
Gerd Leonhard [00:14:25] Yeah. Again you know we are we’re at that point of time where we kind of know how to do this but we’re still putting it all together. So you know we know we’re going to have intelligent machines and and we can speak to software agents on our mobile devices and we can have much faster computers and all these things but none of that is really totally in place yet so we’re still stuck by the machine not understanding us or the network being unavailable. But you know those kind of trivial things, right. And in the next five years that’s all going to move way beyond this point of saying like you know is it working? It’s going to move to the point of yes it’s working. And what do we want to do? What is the sentence behind to try and this is the key question for the Internet of Things? But just having it because we can do which makes no sense. Because as we’re connecting everything we’re also creating huge liabilities and responsibilities. And then the design is going to be much more about what do we want, and what is a good thing to have, how do we do that and how do we monetize that rather than just building something and then see what happens?
Kevin Delaney [00:15:31] In terms of AI again. Do you see it becoming in effect another team-mate especially as speech recognition becomes more sophisticated. And how will that change the way business leaders lead teams.
Gerd Leonhard [00:15:45] Clearly I think once we can talk to computers, machines you know 100 per cent real life like we talk now, then they clearly become like friends, like team-mates. And that’s not far away. That’s maybe two or three years away. Yeah I mean you can be in a science lab and you can speak to the machine to help you figure out stuff. And that’s kind of already there. But you know there’s lots and lots of speed bumps there. So once we have the language, and the natural language processing 100 per cent and the image recognition and then we have quantum computing which we will need because the data would be humongous and regular machines can’t deal with it. Right. So if you want to run the simulation the cloud for you know 100 million data science experiments then you can’t do that with a regular machine so. So all that stuff will happen in just a few years and then we’re going to be at the point where many of the things that we used to do ourselves can be outsourced. And that’s going to definitely make a huge difference in the job landscape but we will develop a response to that because we should not underestimate human ingenuity as to how we can actually create new things with that we are. And I think that you know people argue about this two versions you know one this a dystopian society where you know all of us out of work and the other one this is sort of Star Trek society where we’re all happy to be out of work. And we do what we want to do. Right. This is really not a question of technology it’s a question of cultural, political, societal will and decision making – we can do all of that. We just have to decide what we want.
Kevin Delaney [00:17:29] Many ideas about work are already changing where and when it’s done and with whom. For example, you could be collaborating from a city coffee shop with someone on a mountain top on another continent. How do you see these trends playing out in the next few years? And is that kind of freedom for workers increasingly a key for capturing talent.
Gerd Leonhard [00:17:51] Yes. Well, it’s quite clear that we have both good and bad there. I mean we have the capacity and that’s probably going to happen soon is that we can, we may have as much as 50 or 60 per cent of the gig economy with any given company. So. So you’re not actually employed. You’re providing input on projects and you know that’s already very American model that exists already today. But here in Europe, for example, we don’t have that. You know we are employed and we’re not as entrepreneurial as they are. So the idea of working in the gig economy and contributing to projects and moving onto others that will need some very heavy thinking on things like Social Security and those kind of things that otherwise have been cut out that would not be a good thing because it may create more inequality more of a rat race you know. So I believe that the future is about wild [inaudible] scale collaboration and working on missions rather than for jobs and for necessarily for one company. And that’s a trend. But we’ll have to figure out how to handle that socially and how to tie people into the system without everybody’s sort of fighting on their own. That, that is a very large challenge here.
Kevin Delaney [00:19:08] Yeah it’s a big challenge in terms of the organization – teams become more fluid and more dynamic and leadership probably becomes less hierarchical as well.
Gerd Leonhard [00:19:21] Yeah. That’s one thing I think the other thing is we have to realize the world is changing exponentially and we cannot change a company especially not a big company exponentially and we can’t even grow exponentially with that with a big company. We’re happy to achieve two or three or four per cent of growth. So if we want to double the growth and go exponential you know we’re going to have to do it with outsiders because that’s where the speed is. And I think that goes for a lot of things like RND, for marketing for development for social things for structures for invention for everything. And that is already I think a very large degree of why we have the success of the digital platforms like Amazon and you know Alibaba, Baidu and so on because that’s what they do. They source it from everywhere. And now traditional companies like Mercedes Benz or ABB here in Switzerland that learning should do the same thing and becoming faster and becoming sort of exponential in that process.
Kevin Delaney [00:20:22] Hmm. Well it’s also another side effect of technology change that you bring in technologies like the Internet of Things and robotics and data analytics and really no internal team has all of that expertise, do they.
Gerd Leonhard [00:20:36] No that’s the other thing is I think that we are not just changing exponentially but also a combinatorially which means we’re taking pieces of change from everywhere and all of the sciences are exploding you know nanomaterials, nanoscience, energy science, the quantum computing you name it. It’s all happening at the same time. So how can you keep up as a company if you want to keep it all inside that is going to be very tough even for the biggest most powerful company. It’s going to be by the networked economy right. An ecosystem. And when you have an ecosystem sometimes you have to stand back and then the system gets the benefit not just one player in the system. And that’s really what we’re seeing now. And that is a fundamental change in ownership, in IP in you know in the entire company structure. And it requires a fast-moving environment with people who are networked rather than centralized.
Kevin Delaney [00:21:35] But at the same time, leaders really do need to ensure that their own teams have the skills they need and that they can attract the right talent and grow the right talent. How much of that do you see as being up to the individual worker or for example a CIO to ensure that the skills are there?
Gerd Leonhard [00:21:56] Yeah I think the whole issue about skills and training is I think in the future we’re going to be training people to have the human aspects that they may have you know lost or covered or forgotten about to bring those out because those are the real assets of people in the company, you know, asking questions being critical inventing stuff, contributing to an invention. Having intuition and this all things that 10 years ago were forbidden like you’re not supposed to come in with a question you’re supposed to just do what you’re being told or you know execute on the plan. And now we want the opposite. So this will be very important for people to be to receive the free space. You know the freedom to go ahead and move and this is the kind of thing that that people who are freelancers have. Right. They’re always being put back to themselves while in a company sometimes you just sit back and say well you know we’ll wait and see – which you can’t do anymore. So I think that is the kind of training that we’re going to need in the future. Like I said before, in many ways maybe it’s better to go you know hiking or hitchhiking through India for two weeks than to take a four week MBA course. You know in terms of your own development.
Kevin Delaney [00:23:12] It’s an interesting way to look at it.
Gerd Leonhard [00:23:15] I mean maybe as I think ideally, of course, you can do you want to have both. Right. But how will you learn things like compassion, empathy, design thinking? How will you learn those kinds of things when it’s done sort of on a school bench or in a training lab outside they’re much more practical.
Kevin Delaney [00:23:35] But again it’s interesting it gets back to the whole idea of you really don’t have technology change without culture change and culture change depends on leaders to enable it, to encourage it, to drive it.
Gerd Leonhard [00:23:51] Yeah I think that again that this is the obsession sometimes in especially in many small-medium sized businesses as they could use technology simply for efficiency and that’s it. You make it faster more efficient make it better you make more money and then you’re happy. But the key is technology is that it allows you to do new things. I mean that is the primary purpose of technology. So when you use all that stuff together, all of a sudden you find out you can do something different – you have a new business. That’s what it’s all about, it’s not about just making it cheaper. And this is also why cutting out people in companies is a very short term reaction because you’ll find that you need the people to create the new products based on technology rather than getting rid of them and just having higher margins.
Kevin Delaney [00:24:40] You know you look at the marketplace today and it’s so fast-changing and disruption is really about creativity. Somebody comes up with a new business model a disruptive technology it’s really creativity that’s driving everything isn’t it?
Gerd Leonhard [00:24:56] Yes. And I think you know the other thing to think about it is that it’s no longer good enough to just do disruption. You know that whole area of saying the sort of the unicorns right that lead disruption and that’s kind of over now. Now it’s about construction. How are you going to use technology to construct a new reality? It’s no longer about saying OK putting songs online for streaming service. Now it’s about how we’re going to reinvent the whole music economy – that Spotify will do. Right. So it’s about those things – construction not just disruption the whole obsession with disruption is kind of at the end because you know how many things can you disrupt without cleaning up after yourself.
Kevin Delaney [00:25:38] There is an element of social responsibility that you’re talking about not?
Gerd Leonhard [00:25:42] Just that but I think it’s the sport of disrupting is fun. But then you realize after a while like Facebook has disrupted the media business you know there is no really functioning ecosystem it’s just all been disrupted. And so who creates that ecosystem that we’re going to need in a democracy going forward. Well, that’s going to be left to the people picking up the pieces right. Or the taxpayers here in Europe. I don’t know but that’s not good enough. No that’s why Mark and his cohorts will need to try to reinvent Facebook as an entity that’s not just about you know moving fast and breaking things – that won’t be enough. And I think that’s the same for all I.T. companies and tech companies. It’s great to disrupt but you have to build a new logic and that is what we’re seeing with Tesla and the autonomous driving. No, it’s a whole new way of looking at the world that comes out of that ideally. And that is going to employ a lot more new people also.
Kevin Delaney [00:26:38] Business leaders really have to be aware of disruptive new technologies and business models. But you’re-, it’s interesting you’re bringing another element to this thinking beyond just the disruption.
Gerd Leonhard [00:26:50] Yeah I think that for a lot of business leaders you know it’s you’re always looking for a shortcut to get [inaudible] quickly right. But in the end, you know, a transformation is an organic process. It’s not something that you can just take a pill you know and or jump to standardized conclusions. The most creative people will take all this diverse input and then to cook up a cocktail of change so to speak. That fits for them in their country and their business and their environment. And that is now most of those things are windows right. You have a five-year window of opportunity and then it closes and then you move on to the next window. And this is what technology does. And now these windows are being put up one on top of the other and the smartest CEOs like Jeff Bezos can realize you know there’s a window for something and then I have to create the next windows so that I can still be around in 10 years. Right. And the industry leaders will create those opportunities. They will actually make them work. But I think for smaller businesses that’s very important. You know, how do you become indispensable? That’s the only question because you know in Digital Darwinism the rules is if you can be dispensed you will be.
Kevin Delaney [00:28:06] Speaking of creativity taking a slightly different turn. Some of the most creative people in technology are cybercriminals and they’re even using technologies like A.I. which I.T. will need to be using and already is using because it’s in an endless arms race as you know. Do you see cybersecurity continuing to slow progress for years to come?
Gerd Leonhard [00:28:34] I think that it’s quite clear that exponentially the growth the exponential growth of technology will result in an even more exponential growth of security issues. And so the Internet of Things is the best example, it could be heaven or it could be hell – like the nuclear bomb, or nuclear energy rather, right? It’s like OK we’re going to create something that will save maybe 60 per cent of energy, it will help with global warming, it will be utterly efficient and make life potentially really good for us, but then we have this huge pond of possible attacks. And it’s not just about technology it’s that we need to have rules about who has the keys and why and it’s not just the tech-, I mean you can have great technology if the rules are so wide open that anybody with a police badge can go inside and basically like like it is in the U.S. right now with [inaudible] you know basically do anything anytime, then all the security is useless. So there the societal security, political security, technical security. And as the world is rapidly connecting, that becomes the number one issue. So, I would put together safety security, social contracts, ethics, you know, understanding what’s OK and what’s not OK. And right now the primary emphasis in the tech business has been to just build stuff and make it work. And that will not work here, because as we build really amazing things what’s going to happen with our standards, our security, our ethics, our decision making right, what I call Digital ethics that becomes a huge challenge because we have built more things than we know how to control.
Kevin Delaney [00:30:20] Yeah. And there’s really an ethical responsibility with security isn’t there?
Gerd Leonhard [00:30:26] Yeah I mean my view on this is quite simple if you build something like that something that really impacts the lives of hundreds of millions of people you are responsible for what you build. I mean the oil companies said for a long time that there wasn’t their business that we were going to have pollution. You know they just make the car drive, the gun company says you know ‘guns don’t kill people people kill people’. But this is you know it’s got to be the cheapest excuse you can possibly think of. I mean if you build something that creates smart machines and those machines get networked in they become super intelligent then you are responsible for figuring out a way to contain them or to organize what happens at that point if that’s even possible. You know I think it is. But you know you are responsible for what you create.
Kevin Delaney[00:31:13] It’s an exciting time for new technologies – AI, blockchain, speech recognition, IoT, many of the technologies we’ve touched on in the conversation. Any other thoughts on which technology you think will have the most immediate impact on how we work in the next five years or so?
Gerd Leonhard [00:31:31] I think in general what we are at the cusp of quite clearly. Is the whole natural user interface – you know, talking to machines, that is going to work – already is working. That is going to mean that we don’t type anymore, we just speak. That means we can talk to machines as if they were servants, so to speak. And that’s going to change everything. Mostly to the good. I think even though it may be confusing for us as humans to think of machines as alive or speaking right but that is clearly a benefit that will have an impact across all domains from user interface controlling machines, to autonomous driving, to what have you. And that is here very soon. And the second thing is that now machines are becoming smart, I wouldn’t say intelligent. I think that is far too human of an expression. Machines are becoming smart, and they can learn, not as we learned but they can learn you know – trillions of data feeds and they can make a result out of that. So as machines are becoming cognified as Kevin Kelly says, that is the low hanging fruit – Intelligence assistance IA, and that is basically fancy software that can talk to us, that will do the very heavy lifting, and that would solve gigantic problems for us. That’s all, you know, 90 per cent good as well. And I think that is a huge opportunity connecting that to the Internet of Things. You’ve got three things that are clearly there, clearly positive but also have to be responded to, like the change in the workplace, change of skills, possibly you know in five years when they see the whole discussion about paying people for less of work but the same amount, and then eventually the guaranteed basic income. As a result of total automation of most routines. So I mean this in the end you know this undermines the concept of working for money. And that is kind of a long term future, 10, 15 years away to where we have to think about the economic system. And if that still makes sense given that we could live in this sort of machine Nirvana or nightmare, depending on how we decide! But I think it’s mostly good. You know as I like to say – the technology itself is neutral, morally neutral as William Gibson says. We have to make it do the right thing. And these decisions are political, cultural, social. They have to do with responsibility. Because technology is not inherently evil but it’s not our saviour either. It is just a tool. And in the book, I close with a sentence that “we should embrace technology but not become it”. That is to me the ultimate guiding point because becoming technology doesn’t strike me as a way of making humans happy.
Kevin Delaney [00:34:31] This is Kevin Delaney for Connected Futures. Special thanks to my guest the Futurist Gerd Leonhard. And here’s hoping your future of work is a bright, creative and fulfilling one.
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